Sunday, May 27, 2012

Last Few Weeks - Story of Facebook, Williams & Indian Rupee!!!

I haven't blogged over the last few weeks, so this blog is aptly titled " Last Few Weeks".

What's been happening in the last few weeks. 

For me , the world hasn't changed much , my time has been split between office chores and personal work. However few other things have happened.

FACEBOOK IPO

I have been following facebook ipo through news channels ever since they filed the prospectus with the SEC back in Feb 2012. 

Its been a roller coaster ride for the firm and their underwriters Morgan Stanley. Not to miss out Nasdaq. The hype was so feverish that CNBC and other business channels were covering the whole story leading upto the IPO date almost 24 hours every single day.

I still remember that there were panel discussions about how the company would raise an eye popping 104 billion $ in the IPO and how the founders and the venture capitalists who backed the firm would become instant billionaires etc.

What was interesting was that the increase in IPO price and the insiders selling a large portion of the shares to be sold to public was never scrutinised prior to the IPO . 

When Facebook chose Nasdaq for its listing , everyone said that NYSE missed out on this massive IPO , i bet they would beg to differ now.

On the day when it listed , the whole listing fiasco was exacerbated by the NASDAQ technical glitch .

If that wasn't enough , the stock closed at a meager +o.6% up from its IPO price and all the investors who wanted to make money in an IPO POP were ruined. Incidentally one major fund - Citadel is supposed to set to loose close to 35 Million $ . 

If all this wasn't bad enough , the next day the stock tanked 16% of its value . Then all hell broke loose with investors trying to blame the underwriters for misjudging the demand and valuing the company much more , which meant the IPO price was set way higher than the book value of the stock which in turn meant there was no IPO POP.

Then came the scrutiny by the media about how GM pulled the plug on facebook just days before the IPO and how Morgan Stanley's Analyst had casted doubts on Facebooks monetising model just days before the IPO and how the firm sent out the note only to select investors.

Morgan Stanley was vilified for it in the press over the last week. In the same time the shares have slid further and closed at $31.91 down 3.39% on Friday meaning its lost 16% since its IPO.

For a stock that was touted to be the next big thing to have underperformed so badly calls for lot of questions.

No doubt the debate would still rage for the next coming months and the SEC will investigate Morgan Stanley for their role and the media frenzy would continue further.

It was interesting to see how Media suddenly switch sides.

WILLIAMS F1 VICTORY IN BARCELONA

One of the most illustrious names in F1 history, which had been win less for more than five years . All that changed in Barcelona when a little known Venezuelan named- Pastor Maldenado drove brilliantly to take the podium.

It was a bitter sweet victory for Sir Frank Williams and his team .

However the victory was over shadowed by a big fire in the garage after the race.

I watched an interview in BBC where they interviewed Dickie Stanford Williams F1 Race Team manager.

He was asked what the problem was and why the fire had broken down in the garage.

He Simply said - " Our Process was wrong and it was static current".

That statement took me aback , for a sport know for its absolute accuracy and razor sharp minds such a statement of acceptance made me think.

If a team like Williams say that their process were wrong and they have rectified it , well there could be opportunities for other organizations around the world who can look at their process and re engineer them continuously.

If someone comes to me next time and says my process is perfect , i would quote the above incident as an example.


INDIAN RUPEE SLIDE

Here we go again .

India Rupee to the Greenback is now at 55.355/$ . Indian rupee is now the worst performing currency in Asia .

This is a cause of concern on two counts

1 It is hurting the business , mainly exporters 
2 As the central bank is intervening in the market , it drains up our precious reserves
3 This thing hurts our overall economy 

Bofa Merril Lynch , Morgan Stanley have already revised our growth for year ending Mar 2013, expectation is that we will grow at sub 7% level , probably at 6.3-6.5% 

Which is not good news . 

Of course what we hear is that most of this is Macro Economic driven , well that may be only partially true but most of why we have ended up in such a situation is due to our own misgivings.

We have had several hiccups and no major political will to stem this slide.

Me , along with many other Indians are hoping that the government will get its act together and ensure that it comes up with policies that are more conducive and ensures that these policies are agreed and implemented swiftly.

Currency futures traded in BSE & NSE are pointing to further slide of the Indian Rupee , markets expects rupee to slide around 56.8 levels by end of this year per the futures contracts traded.

That's not good news.

Fingers Crossed.

That's been mad few weeks already!

Have a great start to the new week.